The cheapest health insurance plan is usually the best

To quote Reddit user failed-at-culting:

Yes, if your estimated monthly healthcare costs are less then your insurance premiums (90% of Americans) then you are better off with a high deductible plan and an HSA with some access to that money.

In other words, they are saying the cheapest health insurance plan is usually the best option.  That seems to be correct.

Antony Davies is an economist.  In a recent podcast episode, he talked about comparing different plans from a health insurance company.  He was stunned to find the cheapest plan was always the best deal.  He was comparing plans for his organization, expecting to find different plans were better for different people:

But if you sit down and do the actual math, you say: "Okay, suppose this year I had - pick a number - ten thousand dollars worth of medical expenses. How much would it cost me at the end of the day?  In combination of the premiums I pay, and the copayments I have to pay, and the deductibles, and all of that.  How much am I out of pocket at the end of the day with this great gold-plated plan?"

And then do the same thing [with the cheapest plan].  "Suppose I've got the ten thousand dollars in medical expenses for the year, and I have the bare-bones plan. My copayments are higher, my deductible is higher, all of that, my premiums are less. At the end of the year, how much do I have to lay out?"  Would you believe the bare-bones plan is a better deal?
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I was astounded. I said, "That can't be right!"
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So I'm running these numbers and I'm considering somebody who has no use for a doctor. They're going to have little expenses. For someone with few expenses throughout the year, the bare-bones plan is better.

And then I consider somebody who has tremendous healthcare problems, and who requires lots of treatment and blah-blah-blah and all of this. Same deal, the bare-bones is still better.

Why are health insurance companies offering a worse deal when you pay them more?  Davies theorizes that health insurance companies are simply taking advantage of people who assume that more expensive means better:

It appears to be the case that the insurance companies understand that people aren't going to sit down and do the math that I just did. [People] are going to see "gold-plated plan" [and say] "that must be the best one, give it to me."

To hear Dr. Davies explain at length, see the Words and Numbers podcast, Episode 267: Ten Years of ObamaCare, minute 24:40 (Apple, Spotify, Libsyn).